Free Agency 2025: Desert Heat, Sunshine Deals and a Storm in Carolina
Free agency always delivers. Sometimes it’s fireworks, sometimes it’s a dud, but this summer once again reminded us: if you want action, follow the low-tax states.
Viva Las Marner
The headliner? Mitchell Marner packing his bags and leaving Toronto. Leafs Nation can debate forever whether they’ll ever win the Cup, but Marner doesn’t have to lose sleep over it anymore. Instead, he’s trading hockey’s hotbed for the bright lights of Vegas, where he’ll link up with Jack Eichel. On paper, that’s a duo built for highlight reels and playoff runs. The Golden Knights aren’t hiding it: they’re hunting for their second Stanley Cup.

Mitchell Marner, Vegas Golden Knights/source: Sportsnet
Florida: The Real Win Is Staying Together
Meanwhile, down in Sunrise, the Panthers didn’t need flashy signings. Their big win was avoiding losses. With new deals for Sam Bennett and Brad Marchand, Paul Maurice keeps a powerhouse intact. Combine that with the Florida lifestyle, no state taxes, and a proven winning culture - and you have one of the most attractive destinations in the NHL. Sometimes the best free agency strategy is simply: don’t mess it up.
Brad Marchand, Florida Panthers/source: NHL.com
Carolina Finds Gold in a Dry Market
Just when everyone thought the free-agent pool was bone dry, GM Eric Tulsky and the Hurricanes dove in and came up with treasure.
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Nikolaj Ehlers on a six-year, $8.5M AAV deal.
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K’Andre Miller to upgrade the blue line.
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Logan Stankoven locked up long-term at $6M AAV.
Carolina didn’t just patch holes, they improved everywhere. And the best part? These contracts look like they’ll age really, really well.

Nikolaj Ehlers, Carolina Hurricanes/source: Pique Newsmagazine
Winners, Losers and What’s Next
The Buffalo Sabres? Still searching. Losing JJ Peterka to Utah hurts, even if Michael Kesselring and Josh Doan fill some gaps. But the real buzz around the league has shifted - what once looked like a massive 2025 free-agent summer has turned into a wave of extensions that reshaped the NHL before it even began.
Major Signings That Changed Everything
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Connor McDavid signed a two-year, $25 million extension ($12.5 M AAV) with the Edmonton Oilers, keeping him under contract through the 2027-28 season.
McDavid made it clear: this deal is about winning, not maximizing salary. The short term keeps leverage on his side - by 2028, he could still hit the open market at age 31. -
Kirill Kaprizov inked a historic eight-year, $136 million contract ($17 M AAV) with the Minnesota Wild - one of the richest deals in NHL history. It begins in 2026-27 and instantly resets the market for elite forwards.
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Jack Eichel committed long-term to the Vegas Golden Knights on an eight-year, $108 million contract ($13.5 M AAV), cementing himself as the franchise’s centerpiece for the next decade.
Together, those three deals completely redefined the market. What was supposed to be an open bidding war next summer has now turned into a long-term stability play for some of the league’s biggest names.
A New Free-Agency Landscape
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Instead of chaos, we got commitment - superstars staying loyal to contenders.
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McDavid’s below-market bridge deal gives Edmonton flexibility to build around him.
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Kaprizov’s record-setting number raises the ceiling for every top-line winger.
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Eichel’s balanced contract shows the new middle ground between “team-friendly” and “max-value.”
The ripple effect? GMs across the league are now recalibrating. With the salary cap jumping to $104 million, star contracts are growing faster than ever, but so are expectations.
Final Verdict
So, who won 2025 free agency, and the early-extension season?
🏆 Winners
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Minnesota Wild - locked up Kaprizov for the long haul; the rebuild era is officially over.
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Vegas Golden Knights - secured Eichel and added stability to an already elite core.
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Edmonton Oilers - convinced McDavid to stay (for now), showing true buy-in from the captain.
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Florida Panthers - kept the championship core intact.
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Carolina Hurricanes - made smart, value-driven additions.
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Montreal Canadiens - quietly upgraded their blue line with Noah Dobson.
😬 Losers
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Los Angeles Kings - too quiet in a summer full of opportunities.
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Boston Bruins - missed the spark they needed to stay among the elite.
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Edmonton Oilers (again) - still no real goalie solution, and it’s starting to sting.
Free agency 2025 might not have been historic in chaos, but it was massive in meaning. The chessboard has shifted - and with McDavid’s contract ending in 2028, the next big wave could be even wilder.
JJ Peterka, Utah Mammoth/source: IG, Utah Mammoth
Can Florida Panthers three-peat?
The Florida Panthers enter the 2025–26 season chasing history, but their quest for a three-peat is already under heavy fire. Superstar winger Matthew Tkachuk will miss significant time recovering from offseason surgery, and now captain Aleksander Barkov is sidelined long term after knee surgery. Losing one franchise cornerstone is tough; losing two at the same time is a crisis even for a back-to-back champion. Depth has always been Florida’s greatest weapon, but this is a different kind of challenge.
The numbers show the Panthers have been resilient when Tkachuk and Barkov weren’t on the ice in recent seasons, holding close to break-even in nearly 7,000 minutes without them. That speaks to the strength of their supporting cast: players like Sam Bennett, Anton Lundell, Carter Verhaeghe, and Evan Rodrigues. who will now be asked to play starring roles instead of complementary ones. Florida’s lineup has proven it can win ugly games and grind opponents down, but replacing two of the league’s most dynamic forwards over the course of a full season is another test entirely.

Matthew Tkachuk and Alexander Barkov, Florida Panthers/source: NHL.com
Oddsmakers have noticed, too. Florida has slipped from Stanley Cup favorite to the middle of the pack, trailing teams like Edmonton, Dallas, Carolina, Vegas, and Colorado. Still, writing off this group would be reckless. They’ve built their identity on depth, structure, and belief, and even with two superstars missing, they remain one of the NHL’s most dangerous teams. Opening night against Chicago will be the first glimpse at whether the Panthers’ three-peat dream is still alive, or if the dynasty run finally meets its breaking point.
The last true Stanley Cup three-peat in NHL history belongs to the legendary New York Islanders, who dominated the league from 1980 to 1983, winning four consecutive titles. Since then, only a handful of dynasties have come close. The Edmonton Oilers of the 1980s, led by Wayne Gretzky and Mark Messier, captured five championships in seven years but never secured three straight. In today’s salary-capped era, even back-to-back championships are a monumental feat, making a three-peat nearly mythical.
In more recent memory, teams have flirted with the feat but fallen short. The Pittsburgh Penguins captured back-to-back titles in 2016 and 2017, only to be eliminated in the second round by the Washington Capitals in 2018. The Tampa Bay Lightning, winners in 2020 and 2021, also came close, but fell to the Colorado Avalanche in the 2022 Final. These near-misses highlight just how brutally difficult it is to maintain dominance in the modern NHL - winning once is hard, defending it twice is legendary, and three times? That’s the stuff of history.

Pittsburgh Penguins 2017, source: The New York Times
Young Guns Will Fly Higher
The NHL’s youth movement is impossible to ignore, and the 2025–26 season feels like the year when the next wave officially takes over. Matvei Michkov already stamped his arrival in Philadelphia with 26 goals as a rookie, finishing with 63 points and flashing the kind of late-season chemistry with Sean Couturier and Travis Konecny that has Flyers fans dreaming of their first 100-point scorer since Claude Giroux. Meanwhile, in San Jose, all eyes are on Yaroslav Askarov. The 23-year-old Russian goaltender dominated the AHL playoffs last spring and now gets the keys to the Sharks’ crease. Goalie breakouts are unpredictable, but if Askarov hits his stride, he could fast-track San Jose’s rebuild.
Montreal might be the most intriguing young-gun hub in the league. Ivan Demidov has been hyped as the “next Nikita Kucherov,” and his blend of skill and fearlessness could turn him into an instant Calder contender. Add in Zack Bolduc, a homegrown Quebec talent ready for an expanded role after scoring 19 goals last season, and suddenly the Canadiens look armed with more than just Cole Caufield. On the back end, Lane Hutson is already a star, but the supporting cast of young forwards makes Montreal one of the most exciting projects to watch.

Matvei Michkov, Philadelphia Flyers, source: NHL.com
Elsewhere, Frank Nazar gave Chicago fans a glimpse of the future with a late-season scoring surge and then carried Team USA at Worlds, proving he’s more than just Bedard’s sidekick. The Blackhawks’ youth movement doesn’t end there: defenseman Sam Rinzel is primed for a bigger role after a promising debut, giving Chicago a young core on both sides of the puck. Out west, Will Smith is another name to circle — 45 points as a rookie on a rebuilding Sharks team suggests he’s ready to break loose, especially if paired with Calder finalist Macklin Celebrini.
And don’t forget the dark horses. Ryan Leonard in Washington brings size, speed, and scoring upside that could fit perfectly in the Capitals’ top six. Zayne Parekh, fresh off back-to-back monster OHL seasons, is set to step into Calgary’s blue line with offensive instincts rarely seen from a teenager. In Carolina, Logan Stankoven has already been rewarded with a long-term deal after proving himself as a playoff performer. Put it all together, and the message is clear: the “Young Guns” aren’t just coming - they’re here, and they’re about to reshape the NHL’s balance of power.

Will Smith, San Jose Sharks, source: THW
The Painful Plans: Rebuild is Here
The 2025-26 season looms like a minefield for many franchises still deep in rebuild mode. Teams like Buffalo, Pittsburgh, Seattle, Chicago, Detroit, Anaheim, Columbus and Ottawa are all in that transitional zone, teetering between hope and hardship. The Sabres remain mired in doubt, despite having Dahlin and Thompson; Penguins are finally initiating a teardown after years of patchwork fixes; Seattle’s core of Beniers and Wright is promising, but they’re not yet carrying games. In Chicago, the pressure is squarely on Connor Bedard to become a generational anchor while Frank Nazar, Levshunov, and others develop around him. Detroit and Anaheim, meanwhile, have stacks of young prospects, but converting potential into wins won’t happen overnight.
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What makes 2025-26 especially treacherous is the narrowing margin for error. Rebuilding teams can’t afford prolonged slumps or injury setbacks, because they lack the depth to absorb them. A long losing streak, poor goaltending stretch, or failure to develop top prospects will make this a lost year - not just a learning year. The front offices who bet correctly on youth, internal growth, and pipeline strength (while avoiding onerous veteran dead weight) will survive. Those who overreach in free agency or delay the tear-down will pay dearly.
Still, some rebuilds look further along than others. San Jose is often cited as the model, with Celebrini, Will Smith, Misa, and Askarov forming a young core that might be one or two years away from real contention. At the same time, teams like Columbus and Vancouver are knocking on the door: they may avoid being labeled “rebuilders” if they just push through a few breakout seasons. But for the likes of Buffalo, Chicago, Pittsburgh, Detroit, Ottawa and Anaheim: the 2025-26 season won’t be about rebuilding reputations so much as surviving the build.

Frank Nazar, Chicago Blackhawks, source: THN
Who'll Win the Stanley Cup?
The Florida Panthers, despite key injuries, remain a heavy favorite thanks to their back-to-back championships and core retention. ESPN’s preseason odds list Florida at +300 to win it all in the East, with Edmonton close behind as the top pick in the West. Florida’s ability to reload, not rebuild, has been a hallmark of their success. Still, the loss of Aleksander Barkov (out long term) and the delayed return of Matthew Tkachuk raise serious questions about whether they can maintain that same level of dominance.

Connor McDavid, Edmonton Oilers, source: THW
But the Panthers aren’t alone. The Edmonton Oilers figure prominently among Cup favorites, especially if Connor McDavid re-signs and continues his elite trajectory. Oddsmakers favor Edmonton (+650 in some sportsbooks) as a top title contender. Meanwhile, Carolina Hurricanes are drawing attention as a sleeper pick - they’ve added Nikolaj Ehlers, bolstered their blue line, and seem primed to make a deeper push in 2025–26. Rounding out the favorites are Colorado Avalanche, Dallas Stars, and teams like Vegas Golden Knights that have shown staying power and experience in big moments.